The Pack Report
A First Edition Neo Genesis Lugia sells for $360,000 ten weeks after the same grade went for $205,794, the 30th Celebration product lineup is official for September 16, and vintage posts its biggest week in seven readings.
| Up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Dark BlastoiseLegendary Collection · PSA 5 | $30 → $74 | +147% |
| RayquazaEX Deoxys · PSA 1 | $51 → $200 | +292% |
| PichuExpedition Base Set · PSA 9 | $1,200 → $2,938 | +145% |
| VenusaurCelebrations: Classic Collection (modern) · PSA 6 | $14 → $29 | +105% |
| Down | ||
| Dark SlowbroTeam Rocket · CGC 8 | $107 → $54 | -50% |
| Dark TyranitarEX Team Rocket Returns · CGC 9 | $60 → $32 | -47% |
| BulbasaurPokémon Card 151 (modern) · BGS 9.5 | $80 → $31 | -61% |
$360,000 for a First Edition Lugia, Up 75% Since June
On Monday a PSA 10 First Edition Neo Genesis Lugia sold for $360,000 on Fanatics Collect after 25 bids. The same card in the same grade sold on Alt in June for $205,794. That is a 75 percent move in ten weeks on the most important English card of the Neo era.
The Pattern: Three weeks ago it was the Treecko Gold Star (four times its prior record). Sunday it was the Rayquaza Gold Star past a million. Now the Neo Genesis Lugia, the card that defined "expensive" for 2000-era English Pokemon long before the EX era caught up. The top of the vintage market is being re-marked one chase card at a time, and each result makes the next one easier to justify.
In the Index: Neo Genesis read +2.4% this week after four flat readings, and the vintage basket as a whole posted its largest gain yet. Details below.
A Bid That Is Getting Stronger: Seven readings of the vintage basket since August 13, all positive, compounding to about 2.3%. The shape matters more than the total: the three largest readings are the three most recent, and this week's +0.7% is nearly double the previous high. The money that re-marked the Gold Stars in August is now re-marking the sets around them.
Not Yet a Rally: We would call it one when a reading clears 1 percent or when the EX-era sets stop doing all the work. This week Base Set (+1.1%) and Neo Destiny (+1.3%) joined in, which is the first sign of breadth.
Vintage +0.7%, the Largest Reading Yet; Modern Flat
The Pack Report Index tracks two baskets: the ten most-traded cards in each of twelve vintage sets (1999-2007) and twelve modern sets (2016 on), priced by our own engine from public comps, grade by grade, and compared with the same day last week.
Breadth: Vintage read +0.7%, the largest of seven readings, with 59 of 114 cards higher. The EX era led again, Team Rocket Returns +2.8% and EX Unseen Forces +2.7%, but Neo Genesis +2.4%, Skyridge +1.8%, Neo Destiny +1.3% and Base Set +1.1% all joined. Modern was flat: Celebrations -2.1% and Ascended Heroes -1.6% against Classic Collection +1.1%.
Vintage sets
| Set | Index w/w | Basket |
|---|---|---|
| Base Set | +1.1% | 10 cards |
| Legendary Collection | +0.0% | 9 cards |
| Skyridge | +1.8% | 10 cards |
| XY-P Promotional cards | +0.0% | 10 cards |
| Expedition Base Set | -0.1% | 10 cards |
| EX Team Rocket Returns | +2.8% | 8 cards |
| EX Deoxys | +1.2% | 10 cards |
| Neo Destiny | +1.3% | 10 cards |
| EX Holon Phantoms | +1.7% | 9 cards |
| Team Rocket | -0.4% | 10 cards |
| Neo Genesis | +2.4% | 10 cards |
| EX Unseen Forces | +2.7% | 8 cards |
Modern sets
| Set | Index w/w | Basket |
|---|---|---|
| Evolutions | -0.4% | 6 cards |
| Ascended Heroes | -1.6% | 10 cards |
| Generations | -0.1% | 10 cards |
| Celebrations | -2.1% | 8 cards |
| Crown Zenith | +0.2% | 10 cards |
| Fates Collide | +0.0% | 9 cards |
| 151 | -0.5% | 10 cards |
| Paldea Evolved | +0.7% | 10 cards |
| BREAKpoint | +0.0% | 9 cards |
| Celebrations: Classic Collection | +1.1% | 10 cards |
| Pokémon Card 151 | -1.1% | 10 cards |
| Shining Legends | +0.0% | 10 cards |
The Index is a proprietary model built by Rip Station, which publishes The Pack Report. Method, full history and the trend chart: thepackreport.com/pack-report-index.
A 9 on a Modern Secret Rare: a Discount, Not a Cliff
Monday's quiz was a 1999 Base Set Pikachu where the 10 was the whole price. This issue's quiz card is a 2019 Cosmic Eclipse Pikachu secret-rare full art in PSA 9, and it behaves the opposite way: the 9 is a real card at a real price.
Why the Shapes Differ: On a 1999 common, the card is worth nothing and the gem is scarce, so the 10 carries everything. On a 2019 secret rare, the card itself carries value (it is the chase of its set) and the printing gems often, so a 10 is common and a 9 is a slightly flawed copy of a desirable object. The 9 typically trades at roughly 40 to 60 percent of the 10 on cards like this; on the Base Set common it trades at a small fraction.
The Practical Version: If you want the card, a modern 9 is where the value is: most of the art, a fraction of the premium, and a population large enough that you can buy and sell it on demand. If you want the grade, buy vintage, where the 10 is the asset.
- The Lineup: Pokemon.com's September release list, published Tuesday, puts six 30th Celebration products on September 16: an Elite Trainer Box (9 packs, full-art Nidorina promo), a Pokemon Center ETB (11 packs, two Nidorinas), a Poster Collection (3 packs, Articuno, Zapdos and Moltres promos), a Pokemon ex Box with Sylveon ex or Greninja ex (4 packs), a Tech Sticker Collection and a Knock Out Collection with a commemorative coin.
- Six Per Pack: The set runs 199 cards: 128 main, 33 secret rares, 30 Classic Collection reprints and 8 energies, every card foil, six cards per pack instead of five, with 30 different Pikachus and a Futuristic rare tier illustrated by YOSHIROTTEN. The first set in the game's history to launch worldwide on the same day.
- Study Season: TCG Live's Worlds event ended this morning and the Fall Study Season begins: Build & Battle and Bitty Basic Brawl Trainer Trials through September 15, then the big client update the day before 30th Celebration releases.
- Rocket Month: Team Rocket's Ambition is a week old in Pocket with its missions and puzzle campaign running through September 29. The paper Team Rocket set read -0.4% this week; no Pocket bounce yet.
The Rippers Came Back, and the Aug 24 Quiz Card Came Out in a 10
Rip Check: 2,092 packs by 353 collectors in the seven days to Thursday, up from 1,479 by 213 over Worlds weekend. The $50 machine (968) and the $25 machine (937) were nearly level. All-time: 12,285.
Pull of the Week: Monday evening the $250 machine gave up a 2021 Japanese Blue Sky Stream Dragonite V full art in PSA 10, estimated at $615: the same card as our August 24 quiz, one grade higher. Wednesday the $150 machine produced an Ascended Heroes Mega Dragonite ex special illustration rare in PSA 9 ($601), and early this morning the $50 machine turned out a 1996 Japanese Base Set Charizard in PSA 4 ($432), the first-ever Charizard printing, out of a fifty-dollar pack. See what is live HERE.
- Sep 8 · PSA's next fortnightly backlog update
- Sep 15 · TCG Live's big update; Fall Study Season Trainer Trials end
- Sep 16 · Pokemon TCG: 30th Celebration releases worldwide, six products
- Sep 29 · Team Rocket's Ambition campaign ends in Pocket
- Nov 6 / Nov 13 · Delta Reign; Mega Greninja ex League Battle Deck
The 2019 Cosmic Eclipse secret-rare Pikachu full art, Red and Pikachu in the Pokemon Center, in PSA 9, loaded in the $250 machine. A 9, not a 10, on a modern chase: what is our estimated value?