$8.4 Million Overnight: the Raincoat Pikachu

Overnight, Fanatics Collect closed its Premier auction with the 2015 Japanese XY promo Art Academy Pikachu, the "Raincoat Pikachu" by Y. Fujishima, in PSA 10 at $8,400,000 with premium, a $7 million hammer after 64 bids. Only the $16.5 million Illustrator has ever sold for more.

The Week Before It: Last week's top five, $6.7 million, was led by another Art Academy card: the Mudkip by Daisuke Ochiai, PSA 10, $3.72 million at Fanatics Premier on Thursday. Behind it a Mudkip Gold Star PSA 10 at $1.02 million, a 2008 Majestic Dawn Garchomp LV.X PSA 10 at $900,000, a First Edition Neo Revelation Ampharos PSA 10 at $600,000 privately, and a Latias Gold Star in CGC 10 Pristine at $456,000.

What Changed: The Art Academy promos were 2015 contest cards, printed in runs of about a hundred and distributed to winners rather than sold. A month ago the hobby's seven-figure tier was the Illustrator, the Snap cards and two Gold Stars. It now includes a 2015 Pikachu, a 2015 Mudkip and a 2008 Garchomp. Chart of the Day has the top of the market as it stands this morning.

Eighteen Days: Of the six largest public Pokemon sales this year, four closed between September 10 and this morning. In August the top of the market was the Illustrator and then a long gap to the Snap cards at $800,000. It is now a ladder with rungs at $2.7M, $2.8M, $3.7M, $5M and $8.4M below the $16.5 million at the top.

Two of Six Are From 2015: The Art Academy promos were not on anybody's list a month ago. They are contest cards with print runs around a hundred, which is a smaller population than most Gold Stars and most trophies, and the market has just noticed.

Index Still Paused: Second Week Without New Marks

The Pack Report Index tracks two baskets: the ten most-traded cards in each of twelve vintage sets (1999-2007) and twelve modern sets (2016 on), priced by our own engine from public comps, grade by grade, and compared with the same day last week.

Still Paused: Rip Station's pricing engine has not published a new lane price since September 15, thirteen days ago, so every basket card reads unchanged and both baskets read 0.0%. That is not a market reading and we are not treating it as one. The Index resumes when the engine does; the first reading back will be compared against September 14, the last good reading, so the two paused weeks are covered rather than skipped. Vintage was up about 4.2% over the ten readings before the pause, and nothing that has happened since (two Illustrators, a Torchic, a Raincoat Pikachu, a Garchomp LV.X) points the other way.

Vintage sets

Modern sets

The Index is a proprietary model built by Rip Station, which publishes The Pack Report. Method, full history and the trend chart: thepackreport.com/pack-report-index.

$8.4 Million for One of 57

The $8.4 million Raincoat Pikachu is a PSA 10, and PSA has graded 57 of them a 10, from a print run of about a hundred. The $16.5 million Illustrator is a PSA 10 of which exactly one exists. Those are not the same kind of price.

Trophy Premium, Not Grade Premium: On the Illustrator, the 10 price is the price of a unique object; the 9 is a different card at a third of the money. On the Raincoat Pikachu, more than half the surviving copies are 10s, so the 10 is the normal state of the card and the grade is doing almost no work. What the buyer paid for is the card itself: the most famous Art Academy design, in a hobby that has just decided the Art Academy promos belong at the top. That is a trophy premium, and trophy premiums are set by two bidders on one night.

For the Other 56: Do not mark your copy at $8.4 million. The last public PSA 10 sales before this one were a small fraction of it, and the next one will clear somewhere between those and this. The right comp is the average of the next three, not the first.

• Prerelease Promos: Pokemon.com revealed the four Delta Reign Build & Battle promos today: Masquerain, Magmortar, Enamorus and Kommo-o, each an alternate-art foil with the set logo stamped on the art. One per box, with four packs and a 40-card deck. Prereleases run October 24 to November 1; the set is November 6.
• $900,000 Garchomp: A 2008 Majestic Dawn Garchomp LV.X in PSA 10 sold at Fanatics Weekly for $900,000, more than four times the Palkia LV.X that opened the Diamond & Pearl repricing at $204,000 three weeks ago, and nearly four times the Snorlax LV.X at $253,680. The 2007-2010 chase cards have gone from five figures to high six in a month.
• Neo Revelation Joins In: A First Edition Neo Revelation Ampharos in PSA 10 sold privately for $600,000 on September 22. After the Lugia and Typhlosion from Neo Genesis, that is the third Neo-era First Edition holo over $300,000 this month, and the first from the set after it.
• Pocket: Team Rocket's Ambition's campaign ends tomorrow and Pocket's next set is scheduled for Wednesday, September 30. Our read on the Pocket effect for paper Team Rocket prices is on hold with the engine.

The $150 Machine's Weekend

Rip Check: 1,159 packs by 244 collectors in the seven days to Monday, down from 1,780 by 343. The $50 machine led at 443, the $25 machine did 373, and the $150 machine had its busiest week at 225. All-time: 17,762.

Pulls of the Week: Sunday morning the $150 machine gave up a 2005 EX Emerald Blaziken holo in PSA 9 ($492) and, three hours later, a 2019 Hidden Fates Sylveon GX shiny in PSA 10 ($412). From the $500 machine: a 2019 Unified Minds Dragonite GX full art in PSA 10 on Saturday ($475) and a 2023 151 Charmeleon illustration rare in PSA 10 on Sunday ($470). And Friday the $250 machine turned out a 1999 Base Set Charizard in PSA 4 ($419). See what is live HERE.