The Pack Report
A Rayquaza Gold Star becomes the first English card past $1 million, Andrew Hedrick decks out the final at the Chase Center, and the Gold Star repricing is now three weeks old.
| Up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Dark BlastoiseLegendary Collection · PSA 5 | $30 → $74 | +147% |
| LugiaEX Unseen Forces · PSA 6 | $40 → $165 | +313% |
| RayquazaEX Deoxys · PSA 1 | $51 → $200 | +292% |
| Flying PikachuEvolutions (modern) · PSA 6 | $12 → $24 | +96% |
| Down | ||
| Salamence exEX Deoxys · PSA 1 | $140 → $75 | -46% |
| SnorlaxLegendary Collection · PSA 9 | $125 → $104 | -16% |
| ZapdosGenerations (modern) · CGC 8.5 | $72 → $36 | -50% |
$1.02 Million: The First English Card Past Seven Figures
On Sunday night a 2005 EX Deoxys Rayquaza Gold Star in CGC 10 Pristine sold for $1,020,000 at Fanatics Premier. It is the first English-language Pokemon card to clear a million dollars, beating the $954,800 First Edition Base Set Charizard from February.
Same Card, One Fifth the Price: In the same week, in the Fanatics weekly auction, the identical card in a plain CGC 10 sold for $192,000. The Pristine designation, all four subgrades at 10, was worth five times the Gem Mint. We wrote about this exact gap two issues ago; the market just put a number on it.
The Rest of the Five: A 1996 Japanese Base Set Charizard with a Mitsuhiro Arita autograph in CGC 10 at $348,000, a PSA 10 Skyridge Gengar at $150,000 on eBay, and a PSA 10 2010 HGSS promo Lugia at $144,000. Pokemon swept the top five for the third time in four weeks: $1.85 million.
Nine Days, Three Rungs: The 2005 Rayquaza Gold Star sold three times in public between August 22 and August 30: a PSA 6 at $43,200, a CGC 10 at $192,000, and the CGC 10 Pristine at $1,020,000. From a 6 to a 10 the price goes up 4.4 times. From a 10 to a Pristine 10 it goes up 5.3 times. The second step is bigger than the first, and it is entirely about the label.
Why the Shape Matters: On most cards, the steepest part of the ladder is between a 9 and a 10. On a card where one copy carries a designation nobody else has, the steepest part moves above the 10, and the plain 10 becomes the price everyone else actually trades at. If you own a Rayquaza Gold Star, $192,000 is your comp. The million is a different object.
Vintage +0.4%, Six Readings Without a Down Week
The Pack Report Index tracks two baskets: the ten most-traded cards in each of twelve vintage sets (1999-2007) and twelve modern sets (2016 on), priced by our own engine from public comps, grade by grade, and compared with the same day last week.
Six for Six: Vintage added 0.4%, the sixth positive reading in six weeks and the largest so far; the running total since August 13 is about 1.6%. Team Rocket Returns led at +2.6% (home of the Treecko Gold Star), EX Unseen Forces +2.4%, Skyridge +2.2% the week its Gengar sold for $150,000, and Holon Phantoms +1.5%. Modern slipped 0.1%: Ascended Heroes -2.1% as its tins hit shelves, Celebrations -2.0%, and only Shining Legends (+2.6%) moved up.
Vintage sets
| Set | Index w/w | Basket |
|---|---|---|
| Base Set | +0.4% | 10 cards |
| Legendary Collection | +0.0% | 9 cards |
| Skyridge | +2.2% | 10 cards |
| XY-P Promotional cards | -0.2% | 10 cards |
| Expedition Base Set | +0.2% | 10 cards |
| EX Team Rocket Returns | +2.6% | 8 cards |
| EX Deoxys | +0.3% | 10 cards |
| Neo Destiny | +0.7% | 10 cards |
| EX Holon Phantoms | +1.5% | 9 cards |
| Team Rocket | -0.6% | 10 cards |
| Neo Genesis | +0.0% | 10 cards |
| EX Unseen Forces | +2.4% | 8 cards |
Modern sets
| Set | Index w/w | Basket |
|---|---|---|
| Evolutions | -0.6% | 6 cards |
| Ascended Heroes | -2.1% | 10 cards |
| Generations | -1.0% | 10 cards |
| Celebrations | -2.0% | 8 cards |
| Crown Zenith | -0.0% | 10 cards |
| Fates Collide | +0.0% | 9 cards |
| 151 | -0.1% | 10 cards |
| Paldea Evolved | -0.3% | 10 cards |
| BREAKpoint | +0.0% | 9 cards |
| Celebrations: Classic Collection | -0.0% | 10 cards |
| Pokémon Card 151 | -1.4% | 10 cards |
| Shining Legends | +2.6% | 10 cards |
The Index is a proprietary model built by Rip Station, which publishes The Pack Report. Method, full history and the trend chart: thepackreport.com/pack-report-index.
A 10 on a Common: Why a 1999 Pikachu Is a $500 Card
This issue's quiz card is a 1999 Base Set Pikachu, the yellow-cheeks version, a common from the most-printed set in the hobby. Raw, it is a few dollars. In the grade it carries in our $500 machine, our mark is $493.
Where the Money Is: On a common, the card is worth nothing and the grade is worth everything. Base Set was printed with 1999 quality control: off-center cuts, print lines, soft corners out of the pack. PSA has graded tens of thousands of this Pikachu, and the share that came back 10 is small, so a Gem Mint copy is a scarce object made from an abundant one.
The Rule: On vintage commons, the gap between a 9 and a 10 is the whole price. A 9 is a nice card at a nice-card price; a 10 is a population-report card. On modern commons the same 10 is worth the grading fee and little more, because a 2024 printing gems at many times the rate. Same label, different decade, different economics.
- Decked Out: Andrew Hedrick (USA) won the TCG Masters title Sunday at a sold-out Chase Center, 13-2 on the weekend, beating 2017 champion Diego Cassiraga (Argentina) in the final by running him out of cards. The deck: Dragapult ex, with three Dragapult, four Drakloak, four Dreepy. Prize: $50,000 of a $340,000 TCG pool. Masters VGC went to Takuma Yamazaki.
- Watch the Frog: The Mega Greninja ex League Battle Deck was revealed Friday for November 13 at $29.99: three Mega Greninja ex, two Mega Starmie ex, dice, markers and a code card. League Battle Decks are the cheapest way into a competitive list, and their reveal usually caps the price of the singles inside.
- On Shelves: The Mega Forces tins and the Ascended Heroes tins both shipped Friday. Ascended Heroes fell another 2.1% in this week's Index; the next reading tells us whether the reprint was already priced in.
- Singapore: Worlds 2027 is in Singapore, and PokemonXP will not be part of it. This year's finals at the Chase Center were the first in a major sports arena and the largest venue ever to host a Pokemon tournament.
A Charizard EX Out of the $25 Machine, Minutes Ago
Rip Check: 1,480 packs by 150 collectors in the seven days to Monday, against 1,668 by 323 the week before: fewer people over Worlds weekend, each ripping more. The $25 machine led for the first time at 750, the $50 machine did 500, and the $100 machine came back with 117. All-time: 10,956.
Pull of the Week: Minutes before this went out, the $25 machine gave up a 2014 XY Flashfire Charizard EX full art in PSA 9, estimated at $973, thirty-nine times the ticket. Sunday, the $500 machine produced a 2002 Expedition Pikachu reverse foil in PSA 8 ($854), and Saturday the $250 machine a PSA 10 Cosmic Eclipse Reshiram & Zekrom GX secret rare ($690). See what is live HERE.
- Sep 3 · TCG Live's Worlds event ends; Fall Study Season events begin
- Sep 8 · PSA's next fortnightly backlog update
- Sep 15-16 · TCG Live's big update, then Pokemon TCG: 30th Celebration releases
- Sep 29 · Team Rocket's Ambition campaign ends in Pocket
- Nov 6 / Nov 13 · Delta Reign; Mega Greninja ex League Battle Deck
A 1999 Base Set Pikachu, the yellow-cheeks common, loaded in the $500 machine. On a card like this the grade is the whole price. Look at the centering and the corners: what is on the label?