Rayquaza Takes the Week, Gengar Takes Two Spots

Pokemon swept the five biggest trading card sales of the week ending August 8, combining for $697,200. No Charizard in the top five. Two Rayquazas and two Gengars instead.

Shiny Legend: A 2011 Call of Legends #SL10 Rayquaza Holo in PSA 10 sold for $180,200 through Probstein on August 5, clear of the field by more than $24,000. Its set-mate, the regular #20 Rayquaza Holo in PSA 10, went for $105,000 on ALT a day earlier. Call of Legends is a 2011 set almost nobody opened on purpose; the shiny legend subset inside it is now the chase.

Reverse Psychology: Two reverse-holo Gengars tied for second and fifth: a 2008 Stormfront Gengar #18 PSA 10 at $156,000 (Fanatics Weekly, August 2) and a 2006 EX Legend Maker Gengar #5 in CGC 10 Pristine at $100,000 (August 6). Reverse foil scratches if you breathe on it; gem copies barely exist. More on that in Grade Expectations.

The Only Pikachu: A 1996 Japanese non-glossy Ivy Pikachu promo in PSA 10 also hit $156,000 at Fanatics Weekly, the lone Pikachu on the board. Full list HERE.

First Real Drop: PSA's active backlog read 11.85 million cards on August 11, down from 12.4 million on July 28. PSA says July beat June as its biggest grading month ever, which is why the line finally bent. The queue peaked at 14 million on June 2, the day the four Value tiers were paused, and it has been a saw-tooth since: 12 million at the end of June, 11 million mid-July, then back up to 12.4 million as summer submissions landed.

The Number That Matters: PSA's stated reopening threshold for Value grading is 5 million. At the current rate the company's own projection is another five to six months, so a cheap tier before the holidays is unlikely. While the gates stay shut, new PSA 10 supply arrives slower than normal, which is the quiet tailwind under every gem-mint sale in this issue. Tracker HERE.

A Flat Week: Vintage +0.1%, Modern -0.1%

The Pack Report Index tracks two baskets: the ten most-traded cards in each of twelve vintage sets (1999-2007) and twelve modern sets (2016 on), priced by our own engine from public comps, grade by grade, and compared with the same day last week. Grades with no new comps carry forward, so a flat reading means "no news," not "no demand."

Nothing Moved, On Purpose: This was a flat week. Vintage edged up 0.1% on the median, modern slipped 0.1%, and in both baskets more than a third of cards did not re-mark at all. Under the surface the lean is familiar: EX Team Rocket Returns +4.0%, Team Rocket +2.2% and EX Holon Phantoms +1.7% on the vintage side; on the modern side the sets still on shelves drifted lower (Ascended Heroes -1.7%, 151 -1.6%) while 2016's BREAKpoint ticked up 1.9%.

Vintage sets

Modern sets

The Index is a proprietary model built by Rip Station, which publishes The Pack Report. Method, full history and the trend chart: thepackreport.com/pack-report-index.

The Reverse Holo Is Not the Lesser Card Anymore

For twenty years the reverse holo was the consolation prize: the parallel foil that fell out of every pack while you looked for the real holo. This week two of them, a 2008 Stormfront Gengar #18 in PSA 10 at $156,000 and a 2006 EX Legend Maker Gengar #5 in CGC 10 Pristine at $100,000, out-sold almost everything else in the hobby.

Surface Tension: Reverse foil covers the whole card face except the art, and it scratches, clouds and silvers more easily than any other finish Pokemon has printed. A reverse holo that survived 2006 without a scratch is rare; one that survived and then found its way to a grader is rarer; a 10 is a population you can count on your hands.

The Rule: On vintage and mid-era sets, check the reverse pop before you assume the holo is the chase. The holo often has ten times the 10s. The price gap this week says the market has noticed.

• Starters, Again: Pokemon TCG: First Partner Collection Series 3 hit retail on August 7, the third bundle box in the oversized-starter line. Not a chase product, but the jumbo cards have quietly become the entry point for kids, which is where the next decade of demand comes from.
• Tin Foil Hats: Three Mega Evolution: Ascended Heroes tins are due August 28 at $21.99: four booster packs each plus a promo of Mega Feraligatr ex, Mega Meganium ex or Mega Emboar ex. Tins are how a set gets a second wave of openings, and Ascended Heroes is the one modern set whose index reading has been drifting lower for weeks.
• Worlds Mode: Pokemon TCG Live is running a World Championships celebration from August 6 to September 3, with a Learning Lab, a Gym Leader Challenge trial, Build & Battle with Journey Together, and Twitch drops for watching the broadcast. Worlds itself is August 28-30 in San Francisco.
• Factory Settings: PSA says July beat June as its biggest grading month ever, which is why the backlog in the Chart of the Day finally bent down. Five grading sites running flat out, and the queue still reads nearly twelve million.

The $25 Machine Did Half the Week

Rip Check: 1,660 packs were ripped by 174 collectors in the seven days to Thursday, against 1,917 by 223 the week before, a quieter August week. The $25 machine did 797 of them and the $50 machine 572; the $1,000 pack turned over nine times. All-time we are at 5,927.

Pull of the Week: Tuesday lunchtime, out of the $1,000 pack, a 2001 Neo Revelation Shining Gyarados 1st Edition in PSA 7, estimated at $4,781. The $500 machine gave up a PSA 9 Arceus XY83 promo ($2,426) early Wednesday, and the $1,000 pack also produced a PSA 10 Radiant Charizard from the Play! Pokemon Prize Pack series ($1,249). See what is live HERE.