PSA Drops Below 10 Million, Floats a Reopening This Month

PSA's Tuesday update put the active backlog at 9.9 million cards, down a million from August 25 and 2.5 million (20 percent) below the July 28 peak. It is the first reading under ten million since PSA started publishing the number.

The New Sentence: For the first time, PSA said that if the pace holds it could "evaluate reopening a Service tier" before the end of September. It did not say which one. The stated threshold for the Value tiers (from $25) is still under 5 million, which at the current 500,000-a-week pace is ten more weeks. So the tier under discussion is almost certainly something between Value and Regular, or a limited reopening of one Value option, not the full $25 menu.

What Did Not Change: Regular ($80) is still quoted at 70-80 business days. Express ($149, 20-30 days) remains the best price-to-wait on the menu. Our tier-by-tier math from August 27 still applies.

Same Set, Opposite Directions: Goldin's pop culture auction closed early this morning with a PSA 10 2011 Call of Legends Lugia at $367,220 after 49 bids, nearly twice the auction's next lot. In the same sale a PSA 10 Call of Legends Rayquaza made $97,600. Five weeks ago two of those Rayquazas led the top five at $180,200 and $105,000.

Reading It: The Rayquaza did not fall because people stopped wanting it; three PSA 10s came to market in five weeks, and the third found the thinnest bidder pool. The Lugia had not sold publicly in a 10 all summer. Supply timing moves these cards as much as demand does, and the right comp for either card is the average of its recent results, not the last one.

Vintage +0.6%, Nine for Nine; Fates Collide Jumps 6%

The Pack Report Index tracks two baskets: the ten most-traded cards in each of twelve vintage sets (1999-2007) and twelve modern sets (2016 on), priced by our own engine from public comps, grade by grade, and compared with the same day last week.

Nine for Nine: Vintage added 0.6%, the second-largest reading in nine and the ninth positive one; the basket is up about 3.3% since August 13. EX Unseen Forces led at +2.8%, EX Deoxys +2.2%, Skyridge +2.0%, Expedition +1.8%, Base Set +1.5%. Modern was flat for the seventh time in nine, but Fates Collide, which had not moved since the index started, jumped +6.3%, and Classic Collection added 1.8%. Ascended Heroes -1.6%, nine readings running.

Vintage sets

Modern sets

The Index is a proprietary model built by Rip Station, which publishes The Pack Report. Method, full history and the trend chart: thepackreport.com/pack-report-index.

A Skyridge Reverse Holo Common in a 10: Why $1,066

The quiz card below is a 2003 Skyridge Nidoran reverse holo in PSA 10. It is a common. Our mark on it is $1,066.

Why the e-Reader Reverses Are Different: Expedition, Aquapolis and Skyridge (2002-03) were the last Wizards of the Coast sets and the first with reverse holos on every card, printed on a foil that scratches, chips and shows print lines straight out of the pack. The gem rate on these reverses is among the lowest of any English printing. PSA has graded this Nidoran reverse a 10 a handful of times. Scarcity of the grade, not the card, is the price.

The Rule, Extended: We said on August 31 that on a vintage common the 10 is the whole price. On an e-Reader reverse holo the effect is stronger still, because the printing was worse and the set was short-printed: a PSA 9 of this card is a two-figure item; the 10 is four figures. If you own raw Skyridge reverses, screen them under a loupe before paying $80 and four months; if you own a 10, you own something that will not be re-supplied.

• Tonight: Alt's auction closes with the PSA 10 Torchic Gold Star last reported at $1,968,000 and the PSA 9 at $90,336. If the 10 holds, it beats the $1.02 million Rayquaza from August 30 as the most expensive English Pokemon card. Monday's issue will have both results.
• Goldin's Undercard: Below the Lugia in Goldin's sale: a PSA 10 2006 Nintendo Black Star promo Mew at $88,450 (26 bids) and a 2014 World Championships No. 3 Trainer in CGC Pristine 10, population one, at $74,420. Trophy trainers from the 2010s are now six-figure-adjacent.
• Six Days: 30th Celebration releases worldwide next Wednesday, September 16, with TCG Live's largest update of the year the day before. Expect the modern Index to look different in two weeks.
• Dormant No More: Fates Collide (2016) read exactly 0.0% in every Index reading since August 13 and jumped 6.3% this week on fresh comps. Three of the four modern sets that rose this week are built on reprints or 2016-era art.

A $2,410 Snorlax Out of the $250 Machine

Rip Check: 2,119 packs by 210 collectors in the seven days to Thursday, level with the week before on packs (2,092) with fewer, heavier rippers. The $25 machine led again at 1,102, the $50 machine 665, the $100 machine 193. All-time: 14,404.

Pull of the Week: Tuesday morning the $250 machine gave up a 2020 Vivid Voltage Snorlax cosmos holo in PSA 10, the Pokemon Center ETB promo, estimated at $2,410, nearly ten times the ticket. Wednesday the $500 machine produced a 1999 shadowless Blastoise in PSA 8 ($1,500) and a Neo Destiny Dark Gengar in PSA 6 ($616) seven minutes apart, and early Wednesday the $50 machine turned out a 2017 Japanese SM2+ Darkrai GX hyper rare in PSA 10 ($1,339), twenty-seven times the ticket. See what is live HERE.