Five Pokemon Cards, $2.96 Million, One Saturday

Fanatics Weekly closed on October 4 and Pokemon swept the top of the trading card market again. Five cards combined for $2,964,000, and the headline act was not a Charizard.

Moon Landing: A 2008 Great Encounters Cresselia #2 in PSA 10 sold for $960,000. Cresselia has no mainstream pull - no anime arc, no Logan Paul - and it still out-sold every Pikachu and Charizard on the board. The story is condition, not character: Diamond & Pearl era holos were printed on stock that scratches if you look at it, and gem-mint copies of the obscure ones are now trading like trophy cards.

The Rest of the Board: A 2001 Southern Islands Mew #1 PSA 10 at $840,000; a 2019 Detective Pikachu SM170 PSA 10 at $420,000 on eBay (October 9); a 2004 Clash of the Blue Sky Rayquaza Gold Star BGS 10 Pristine at $384,000; and a 2003 Aquapolis Crystal Lugia #149 PSA 10 at $360,000, more than double its previous record of $148,511.

Why You Care: The same Southern Islands Mew sitting in our $150 machine right now is a PSA 8 at an estimated $6,100. Two grade points separate a nice weekend from a house down payment. That gap is the whole hobby in one number.

Full top-five breakdown HERE.

Digging Out: PSA's backlog read 8.2 million cards on October 6, down from 12.4 million on July 28 and 9.0 million two weeks earlier. The Value tiers have been paused since June 2, the cheapest open door is Standard at $59.99 with a 90-100 business-day turnaround, and PSA says the number it wants to see before reopening discounted tiers is about 5 million. At the current pace of roughly 800k cards per fortnight, that is a January-to-February conversation.

Slabflation, Still: While the queue clears, new PSA 10 supply is arriving slower than normal and existing slabs keep their scarcity premium. The Cresselia above is what that looks like at the top end. Backlog report HERE.

Vintage Caught a Bid, Modern Sat Still: +4.1% vs +0.8%

The Pack Report Index runs two baskets: the ten most-traded cards in each of the twelve most active vintage sets (1999-2007), and the same for the twelve most active modern sets (2016 on). Every card is priced by our own engine from public comps, grade by grade, and compared with the same day last week. Grades with no new comps carry forward, so a flat reading means "no news," not "no demand."

Fewer Sales, Higher Marks: Dollar volume across the whole Pokemon market fell 15.5% week over week (47,790 sales vs 55,012) while prices on the vintage cards people actually trade ticked up. Thinner tape, firmer prices - that is what a market looks like when sellers are not in a hurry. The move is concentrated in the EX era: EX Deoxys, EX Unseen Forces and EX Holon Phantoms all re-marked double digits, while Base Set and Team Rocket sat still.

Modern Is Two Markets: The modern basket was flat on the median, but that hides a split. The ten-year-old sets did the work - Evolutions +9.3%, BREAKpoint +10.3%, Celebrations +5.3% - while the sets still on shelves drifted lower: Ascended Heroes -3.2%, 151 -0.9%, Paldea Evolved -0.6%. Supply is still arriving for those; it stopped arriving for 2016 a long time ago.

Most Popular Vintage Sets This Week

Most Popular Modern Sets This Week

A Kindergartener's Zorua Just Sold for $156,000

In 2010 a six-year-old named Megu Taniguchi won the Kindergarten division of the Illusion's Zorua design contest with a drawing of Zorua and Pikachu riding a bus. Roughly 100 copies of the promo were printed. On September 27 a PSA 10 copy closed at Fanatics Collect for $156,000.

The Comp: A copy in the same grade sold for $8,700 in 2023. Same card, same plastic, same pop - an 18x move in three years. Nothing about the cardboard changed; what changed is who is bidding on contest promos and how few gem-mint copies exist to bid on.

The Lesson: Population is the number that matters on oddball cards. A PSA 10 on a 100-copy promo is not "a 10," it is one of maybe a dozen that will ever exist. Before you chase a modern alt-art 10 with a pop of 4,000, check what the low-pop vintage promo in the same price bracket is doing. Story HERE.

• Two Million Pikachus: Goldin's 30th Anniversary auction is headlined by the 1997 Gold 1st Place Trophy Pikachu (PSA 8) from the very first official Pokemon TCG tournament. Pre-bidding opened and the card is already at $1,925,000, or $2,348,500 with the premium, past the $1,769,000 record a Bronze 3rd Place copy set in May. Live through at least October 25. Details
• Record Quarter, Shrinking Months: Collector Crypt posted $433.5M of Q3 revenue at a 5.9% gross margin, a record. The catch: June was $212M, July $157M, August $142M, September $134M. Courtyard fell to $7.6M from $17.8M. A tokenized 1st Edition Charizard changed hands for $825,000 on September 23, and Coinbase teased Pokemon packs of its own on September 28 with no date, chain or price. The report
• Kickflip Rare: Santa Cruz drops a Pokemon TCG skateboard line on October 17: 30 decks, each printed with one of 30 card designs from the 30th anniversary, plus three "secret rare" boards and apparel. The chase has officially left the binder. PokeBeach
• Happy Birthday, Fossil: The English Fossil set released on October 10, 1999 - 27 years ago Saturday. The 1st Edition Fossil Dragonite in CGC 10 sitting in our $500 machine (estimated $4,705) was printed before some of you were.

The Machines Doubled Up, and Every Pool Is Still Above Ticket

Live snapshot from the machines as of Monday afternoon. Expected value is the average estimated market value of every card actually loaded in the pool right now - it moves every time someone rips, and it is an estimate, not a promise.

Rip Check: 758 packs were ripped by 104 collectors in the seven days ending Sunday, against 329 by 70 the week before - a 2.3x week. The $25 machine carried it with 394 rips; the $500 machine quietly did 80. All-time we are at 18,797.

Pull of the Week: Wednesday evening, somebody put $250 in and pulled a PSA 10 2009 Platinum Supreme Victors Charizard G #20, estimated at $2,405 (pop 118). Call it 9.6x ticket. The $500 machine also produced seven pulls over $1,100 this week, led by a $1,264 PSA Topps TV Animation clear Charizard.

Ladder's Open: Logged-in users get five waves on the $50 machine with discounts climbing from 8% to 12%, one run per wallet per week, through October 27. Wave 1 makes a $50 pack $46.00 against $52.65 of estimated EV. See what is live HERE.

Delta Reign Incoming: Mega Evolution closes out with Delta Reign on November 6 - 135+ cards, 35+ special illustrations, and Mega Rayquaza ex as the chase. Prerelease events with the Build & Battle Box start October 24. Set page